Runoff Watch – Raleigh City Council 2019[DONE]

Last Updated: October 11th 2019 7:05 PM

UPDATE: Kay Crowder, Russ Stephenson, and Charles Francis Conceded on October 11th, 2019. The 2019 #ralpol Election is OVER!

After all votes were counted the results of the October 8th City Council election left open the possibility of three runoff races. This post will be updated with announcements from candidates calling for a runoff, endorsements from candidates who lost in the general election endorsing candidates in a runoff, and any additional news/related information on the 2019 Runoff election.

Runoff Announcements

• Mary-Ann Baldwin vs. Charles Francis
  • Francis is expected to call for runoff from a quote he gave at his election watch party on October 8th. “In the event of a runoff, I want everybody to go home and get a good night’s sleep,” he said. “Then tomorrow, I want you all to put your running shoes on.” N&O Article
  • His campaign has also told the N&O Francis will release a statement Wednesday, October 9th on his decision to call for a runoff.
  • Tweet from Anna Johnson (N&O Reporter) indicates she has confirmed with Francis he is still weighing his options.
• Jonathan Melton vs. Russ Stephenson
  • Stephenson is expected to call for runoff from a text message he sent to the N&O on October 8th “The campaign begins again tomorrow.” N&O Article
  • CBS 17 article quotes Stephenson saying “He will make a decision [on runoff] by Thursday afternoon”.
• Saige Martin vs Kay Crowder
  • It is unknown if Kay Crowder will call for a runoff. She has not discussed the election results with reporters.
  • Tweet from Anna John (N&O Reporter) indicates she has confirmed with Crowder she is still weighing her options.

*Strikethrough text indicates the information is no-longer up-to-date

Runoff Endorsements

For candidates that didn’t win their election, and weren’t eligible to participate in a runoff, their endorsements to support a candidate can make a large difference in a runoff race. Those who have publically endorsed from the runoff are listed below along with the number of votes and percentage of votes they received in the October 8th general election.

• Baldwin vs. Francis
  • Carolina Sullivan (no announcement) 11,106 (20.48%)
  • Zainab Baloch (no announcement) 3,497 (6.45%)
  • Justin L. Sutton (no announcement) 1,116 (2.06%)
  • George Knott (no announcement) 737 (1.36%)
• Melton vs. Stephenson
  • Portia Wilson Rochelle (no announcement) 11,353 (12.46%)
  • Carlie Allison Spencer (Endorses Melton October 9th, 2019) 5,455 (5.99%)
  • James Garland Bledsoe (Endorses Melton October 9th, 2019) 4,438 (4.87%)
  • Nicole Stewart (no announcement, won at-large seat) 30,728 (33.74%)
• Martin vs. Crowder
  • Brittany Bryan (no announcement) 1,158 (11.40%)
  • April Parker (no announcement) 796 (7.84%)

Why do runoffs happen?

For at-large candidates to win they must obtain at least 25% of all votes plus one vote. For the other offices, candidates must obtain 50% of all votes plus one vote. If a candidate for office (or in at-large race’s case two candidates) fails to hit those requirements the next closest candidate can call for a runoff. Crowder, Francis, and Stephenson are eligible to demand a runoff but must declare by October 17th.

The last time a runoff changed the result of an election for Raleigh Mayor was 2001 Paul Coble vs Charles Meeker.2001 General Election Results Raleigh Mayor

• Coble 19,279 (49.15%)
• Meeker 18,692 (47.65%)

2001 Runoff Election Results Raleigh Mayor

• Coble 24,599 (48.87%)
• Meeker 25,655 (50.97%)

Runoff elections in 2001 & the previous runoff election for City Council in 2017 both saw an increase in the number of voters over the general election. However, it will be very difficult for Francis or Crowder to change the outcome from last night through a runoff. Russ Stephenson may have a chance, but it will be difficult for him particularly if turnout is at least on-par with numbers from the October 8th election.